So the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their winter outlook yesterday. Now here's my disclaimer, I've been forecasting weather for nearly 20 years and it takes everything I have to forecast out 7 days. Sometimes those forecasts are very good and sometimes....well, let's say they can also be less than good! I never cancel any plans based on the 7th day of a 7 day forecast and you shouldn't make plans for you winter based on the long range forecast.
Now I'm not all "anti-long range forecasting." NOAA forecasters do an amazing job trying to pin down what our conditions are going to look like for the next several months. I'm just saying it only takes one big snowfall to turn an average winter into a record breaker.
Here's a link to the forecast:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.htmlIn simpliest terms, we're entering winter in a weak La Nina pattern. This would suggest cooler and wetter than average conditions for us. Last winter we had a very strong La Nina pattern, this one...not as strong. It will be interesting to see how the winter plays out. We'll keep you informed of any changes to the long term forecast and of course we'll have you covered daily on ABC4 News.
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http://www.facebook.com/glennwilleyweather and by following me on Twitter at
willeyonweather.
