Okay, so I'm a movie nerd. Get used to it.
As such, here are my informed picks for who I think WILL win and who I think SHOULD win. There is a difference, people.
Anyway, here goes (Winner in BOLD, who I think should win UNDERLINED):
Performance by an actor in a leading role:
This one was easy, even though I think Jeff Bridges deserves the award as much as Colin Firth.
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
James Franco in “127 Hours”
Performance by an actor in a supporting role:
Another sure thing, although Geoffrey Rush could give Bale some competition, especially since Bale has such a bad reputation as a prima donna. Even so, Bale deserves it, and will win it.
Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”
Performance by an actress in a leading role:
This is the sure slam-dink of the entire night. No one will touch Portman, nor should they.
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
Performance by an actress in a supporting role:
Here's where things get a little dicey. The fan favorite is Hailee Steinfeld, but Oscar snobbery doesn't like it when long-time veteran actresses like Melissa Leo get upstaged by tweeners. I'm torn as to who should win, because I liked both performances - a lot. So, Leo gets the odds-on Academy vote, but I think Hailee deserves it as much as Leo.
Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
Best animated feature film of the year:
Duh. This will be the consolation prize for having almost no chance at winning Best Pic for TS3.
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Illusionist”
“Toy Story 3”
Achievement in art direction:
Here's where I will take issue with the voters. Alice in Wonderland was indeed an artistic wonder, but you lose points with me when almost the entire film is special effects. Inception had its share of special effects as well, but it was rooted in realistic imagery. No big disappointment, if it goes either way.
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
“Inception”
“The King's Speech”
“True Grit”
Achievement in cinematography:
Another split. The King's speech will take the prize, but any other film is just as deserving, with a slight edge going to Inception in my book.
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“The King's Speech”
“The Social Network”
“True Grit”
Achievement in costume design:
Successful period costume dramas like King's Speech are always going to win, especially if they are nominated for best film or acting categories. I have no problem with it this year.
“Alice in Wonderland”
“I Am Love”
“The King's Speech”
“The Tempest”
“True Grit”
Achievement in directing:
I don't mean to give anything away here, but best film winners almost always get best director wins, too. I still think the Cohen boys did a great job in producing a completely original film from the John Wayne classic; no small achievement.
“Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
“The Fighter” David O. Russell
“The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
“The Social Network” David Fincher
“True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Best documentary feature:
I didn't see the doc nominees, so I'll just take a stab at both.
“Exit through the Gift Shop”
“Gasland”
“Inside Job”
“Restrepo”
“Waste Land”
Best documentary short subject:
“Killing in the Name”
“Poster Girl”
“Strangers No More”
“Sun Come Up”
“The Warriors of Qiugang”
Achievement in film editing:
Again I like all the nominees here, but I thought 127 Hours did the best job of crafting several story lines into what could have been a boring survival tale. The Social Network did the same, but the editor had a little more material to work with.
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“The King's Speech”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
Best foreign language film of the year:
Didn't see these either, but the Academy loves Javier Bardem, so I'll give Biutiful the nod.
“Biutiful” Mexico
“Dogtooth” Greece
“In a Better World” Denmark
“Incendies” Canada
“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” Algeria
Achievement in makeup:
Since I only (unfortunately) saw Wolfman among the noms, I'll give it the benefit of the doubt.
“Barney's Version”
“The Way Back”
“The Wolfman”
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score):
All great nominees, but I thought The Social Network's understated, yet distinctive score rally added to a great screenplay and performances. King's will win, since it's going to win most of its categories.
“How to Train Your Dragon” John Powell
“Inception” Hans Zimmer
“The King's Speech” Alexandre Desplat
“127 Hours” A.R. Rahman
“The Social Network” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song):
I liked all the nominees again, but I'll give the edge to Randy Newman.
“Coming Home” from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
“I See the Light” from “Tangled” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
“If I Rise” from “127 Hours” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Best motion picture of the year:
Okay, now for the real meat. First, The King's Speech will win, for several reasons. First, it's a royal movie. Second, it's a movie with great performances. Third, it came out later than most of the other nominees, giving it front-runner status. The movie I think should win is True Grit, but Jeff Bridges' Oscar breakthrough, coupled with previous success for the Cohens (Fargo, No Country for Old Men) kinds of kills its chances of getting more love. Some will say The Social Network will win, but I don't think Facebook is all that important to the stodgy Academy snobs. I'm not disappointed if any of the three win. In fact, I think every movie except The Kids are Alright truly deserves consideration.
“Black Swan”
"The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King's Speech”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
"Toy Story 3”
“True Grit”
“Winter's Bone”
Best animated short film:
I didn't see all the nominated films here, but I'll give Day and Night the benefit of the doubt since it was most likely seen by most voters.
“Day & Night”
“The Gruffalo”
“Let's Pollute”
“The Lost Thing”
“Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey
Diary)”
Best live action short film:
Didn't see all of them, so another guess.
“The Confession”
“The Crush”
“God of Love”
“Na Wewe”
“Wish 143”
Achievement in sound editing:
This one is easy. Inception.
“Inception”
“Toy Story 3”
“Tron: Legacy”
“True Grit”
“Unstoppable”
Achievement in sound mixing:
A little more difficult than the Sound Editing award (there IS a difference). Inception has all the earmarks of a winner here, but the overwhelming influence of King's Speech dominance could rule the day (even more).
“Inception”
“The King's Speech”
“Salt”
“The Social Network”
“True Grit”
Achievement in visual effects:
This one is another 2-horse race; this time between Alice and Inception. I'm rooting for Inception, but Alice will win.
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
“Hereafter”
“Inception”
“Iron Man 2”
Adapted screenplay:
A lot of nominees deserve this one, but I have to give the nod to Aaron Sorkin for his brilliant screenplay.
“127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
“The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
“Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
“True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
Original screenplay:
I'm hoping for Nolan (since he got snubbed for a best director nomination), but The King will rule once again. Too bad. Nolan is one of Hollywood's greatest and most creative talents.
“Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
“The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
“Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
“The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
“The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler
There you go, folks. If you don't agree with me, then go ahead and give me your picks. Even if I'm wrong, I'll probably be less wrong than most of you. Either way, I'm pretty sure I can beat you in a game of Uno.
